☄️ New telescopes make us safer from asteroid threats – but the media will keep scaring us

• The media reported extensively on asteroid 2024 YR4, which was at risk of hitting Earth. Scientists have now determined that it only has a 0.0039 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
• Several powerful new telescopes will soon come into operation, which are expected to increase the discovery of near-Earth asteroids by 10 to 100 times.
• Finding and tracking more asteroids makes us safer, because it gives us time to calculate their orbits and take action if needed — but it also means the media will scare us more often.

Risk from newly discovered asteroid significantly downgraded

An asteroid discovered late last year, called 2024 YR4, was initially assessed to have a 3.2 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. New observations have now reduced this risk to only 0.0039 percent, or 1 in 26,000, according to NASA.

The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters in diameter, is large enough to cause regional destruction if it were to hit Earth. But with improved observations, researchers could get a clearer picture of its orbit and determine that it will pass Earth at a safe distance.

New telescopes will find many more asteroids

Richard Binzel, one of the world's leading asteroid experts and professor of planetary science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explains that objects the size of 2024 YR4 pass harmlessly through the area between Earth and the moon several times per year.

"The YR4 episode is just the beginning for astronomers gaining the capability to see these objects before they come calling through our neck of the woods." says Binzel to Ars Technica.

Several new telescopes will soon improve our ability to detect near-Earth objects:

• The Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile is nearing completion
• The NEO Surveyor is planned to launch in just over two years
• The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is set to launch in 2027

With these new tools, astronomers expect to discover 10 or even 100 times more objects similar to 2024 YR4.

Knowledge provides security

Binzel, who invented the "Torino Scale" about 30 years ago to classify asteroid threats, believes that finding more asteroids is positive. The Torino Scale is a tool used to assess the risk of an asteroid or comet colliding with Earth by combining the probability of impact with the potential severity of the damage. The scale ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain and catastrophic collision).

"Rather than making anyone anxious, by finding these objects that are already out there and pinning down their orbits, we are becoming more secure in our knowledge that any sizable asteroid is not likely to take us by surprise as an unwelcome guest landing on us," says Binzel.

Recently, asteroid 2024 YR4 reached level 3 on the Torino Scale when the risk of impact was at its highest. Now it's classified as level 0, meaning it poses no threat.

The earlier we detect potential threats, the more time we have to prepare possible missions to deflect an asteroid if needed.

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