⛽ China's declining gasoline consumption exceeds expectations

⛽ China's declining gasoline consumption exceeds expectations

China's gasoline consumption will decrease by 4-5 percent annually until 2030. The decline in gasoline demand in China is more pronounced than in the US and Europe. PetroChina predicts that the number of gasoline-powered cars will peak already in 2025.

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  • China's gasoline consumption will decrease by 4-5 percent annually until 2030.
  • The decline in gasoline demand in China is more pronounced than in the US and Europe.
  • PetroChina predicts that the number of gasoline-powered cars will peak already in 2025.

Sharp decline in gasoline consumption

China's gasoline consumption faces a significant decrease. Brokerage firm CITIC Futures Co. calculates that the country's gasoline consumption will decrease by 4-5 percent annually until 2030. This is a larger decrease than previously expected and differs significantly from developments in other countries, according to Bloomberg.

Unlike the US and Europe, where gasoline consumption has plateaued after peak levels, China's decrease is expected to be considerably steeper. In the US, gasoline consumption has only decreased by 12 percent since peaking in 2004. In Europe, the transport sector's fuel consumption has decreased by only 6 percent since the peak year of 2007.

Gasoline consumption reaches its peak before declining rapidly. The number of gasoline-powered cars on the roads is expected to reach its highest level as early as next year.

Impact on global oil consumption

China accounts for almost one-fifth of global oil demand, with gasoline comprising about a quarter of the country's total oil consumption. Anders Hove at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies calculates that China's oil demand from light vehicles will decrease from the current 3.5 million barrels per day to 1 million barrels by 2040.

Over half of all new passenger cars sold in China since July are electric or hybrid, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Electric vehicles now make up about 10 percent of all cars on the roads, a figure expected to increase to over 20 percent by 2027. According to calculations, the proportion could approach 100 percent by the 2040s.

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