⛅ New AI model improves weather forecasts up to 15 days ahead

• GenCast delivers better forecasts than the world's leading weather prediction model.
• The model delivers results in 8 minutes compared to several hours for traditional systems.
• The AI model is more accurate in 97.2 percent of cases when compared to today's best system.

Faster and more accurate than current systems

Google has developed a new AI model for weather forecasts called GenCast. The model uses data from four decades of weather observations to create detailed forecasts with a resolution of 0.25 degrees.

GenCast creates 50 or more possible weather forecasts simultaneously, providing a clear picture of forecast uncertainty. The model only needs 8 minutes on a Google Cloud TPU v5 to produce a 15-day forecast. This can be compared to today's systems that require several hours of calculation on supercomputers with tens of thousands of processors.

Better forecasts for extreme weather

When researchers tested GenCast against ECMWF's ENS system, which is the world's leading weather prediction model, GenCast showed higher accuracy in 97.2 percent of cases. For forecasts longer than 36 hours, GenCast was better in 99.8 percent of cases.

In a test with typhoon Hagibis, GenCast could show different possible paths for the typhoon seven days in advance. The closer to landfall, the more precise the forecast became for the typhoon's path towards Japan's coast.

Open for everyone

GenCast has also been tested to predict wind power production. The model showed higher precision than current systems when analyzing the total wind power production from wind farms around the world.

Google has made GenCast an open model and released both code and data. The company will also make forecasts available in real-time, allowing researchers and organizations to integrate data into their own models and research projects.

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